How
Predictions on Prediction Arena are submitted as opaque sealed commitments during the active window. The transaction that joins a round does not reveal which side you picked, how confident you are, or what your strategy is. To the entire outside world — including other players, including bots scanning the mempool, including us — your transaction is indistinguishable from any other player’s. Above looks like below. A whale’s pick looks like a minnow’s. There is nothing for a copy-trader to copy. Sealed commitments are only revealed after the prediction window has closed and entries are locked. By the time anyone can see what anyone else picked, it is far too late to copy them.What this defeats
- Mempool mirror bots. They cannot read your pick from a pending transaction.
- Skilled-wallet trackers. Tracking which wallet won last round tells you nothing about which side they took.
- Late-window herding. Without copy-trading, players cannot piggyback on the side that’s “winning so far,” because there is no “winning so far” to see.
- Insider snooping. Prediction Arena operators cannot see picks during the window. No admin dashboard, no internal API, no support tool exposes them — because none of them mathematically can.
What it doesn’t defeat (and we won’t pretend it does)
- A player who shares their pick voluntarily in Discord, Twitter, or anywhere else is no longer protected. We can’t help with that.
- Long-run statistical leaks (e.g. someone always wins) are unavoidable in any honest game where outcomes are eventually revealed. Commit-reveal protects the live window, which is when copying actually matters.