Skip to main content
Most prediction sites have a fundamental information leak: the moment you submit a pick, somebody knows what it was. Maybe an order book, maybe a public mempool, maybe a database an employee can query. That information is valuable, and where information is valuable, it gets exploited. Prediction Arena uses commit-reveal to close that leak.

​
What “commit-reveal” means in practice

When you submit a prediction, the app sends an opaque hash to the contract. That hash is mathematically derived from your pick, your stake, and a secret salt — but it reveals none of them. To anyone watching the chain, your transaction is indistinguishable from any other player’s. Above looks like below. A whale’s pick looks like a minnow’s. Once the prediction window closes, predictions are revealed and verified against their commitments. Any pick that doesn’t match its commitment is rejected. You cannot change your answer after seeing the settlement price, and neither can anyone else.

​
What this protects against

  • Mempool sniping. A bot watching pending transactions cannot see your pick to mirror or fade it.
  • Copy-trading. Sophisticated players cannot wait for known-skilled wallets to commit and then copy them.
  • Insider front-running. Prediction Arena operators cannot see picks either — there is no admin dashboard with a “see all live picks” button, because such a button is mathematically impossible to build on top of a commit-reveal scheme.
  • Late-window herding. Without commit-reveal, the side with more money attracts more money in a feedback loop. With it, players have to make a real call.

​
What it does not protect against

We are not in the business of overpromising. Commit-reveal does not protect against:
  • Bad predictions. It is still a prediction market. You can still be wrong.
  • Oracle outages. If the oracle network itself goes down, settlement is delayed until it comes back. We will never substitute our own price.
  • You losing your seed phrase. Non-custodial means non-custodial.